Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.